Stratfor: we do not believe the US will allow Russia to use its leverage in Syria
 

 

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Eugene Chausovsky focuses on political, economic and security issues pertaining to Europe and the former Soviet Union. Mr. Chausovsky holds a degree in international relations from the University of Texas at Austin. He was previously a researcher at the university, concentrating on demographic trends and their impact on the political and electoral systems of Russia. Mr. Chausovsky was born in Moscow and is a fluent Russian speaker. He lived in Ukraine, Austria and Italy before moving to the United States.
 
AREAS OF EXPERTISE

— Politics, economics and security trends in the former Soviet states
— Russia's energy policy and strategy in the former Soviet periphery
— EU policy toward the former Soviet states
— Sovereignty and integration processes in Europe and the former Soviet states
 

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— The coalition against Islamist terrorism. Can the fight against ISIL become common place for the leading countries, such as the fight against Hitler. Will it lead to new sustainable world order, like the Yalta system, or will become a prologue to another spiral of tension — as the Treaty of Versailles made a second world war inevitable?

— The fight against IS has some similarities to the Allied war against Hitler and Nazi Germany, in that the main Western countries of the US, UK, and France have a shared interest with Russia in combatting IS. However, the manner in which the Western countries and Russia are fighting IS is much different, as can be seen in Western discomfort over Russia's air strikes in Syria. Russia's strategy for countering IS is to reinforce the Alawites, with whom Moscow has the most leverage. That policy entails targeting the very rebels that the US, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others are backing. The difference in tactics will continue to fuel tensions on the battlefield. Remember that Russia's involvement in Syria is not only limited to its interests in the Middle East. Russia also wants to use its presence in Syria to draw the United States into a broader negotiations on issues pertinent to Moscow's core interests. However, we do not believe the US will allow Russia to use its leverage in Syria to negotiate limits on Western encroachment in the former Soviet sphere.


— The role of Belarus in the new world. Belarus has recently considered the «last dictatorship in Europe», and now the whole world recognizes the success of the Minsk process in the calming Ukrainian conflict. European experts call Belarus «donor of stability in the Eastern Europe». Sanctions are canceled, the leaders of Germany and France have been visit to Minsk . What is the attitude of the US to this transformation of the Belarus role? Could Belarus expect to build economic cooperation, the inflow of US investments and high technologies for any sectors of economies?

— The US, like the Europeans, has been supportive of Belarus» role as an important mediator in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. There has already been a small but notable economic opening between Belarus and the West over the past year, and the US is likely to become more economically engaged with Belarus as long as Minsk maintains its mediating role and doesn't get too close to Moscow.


— A possibility of «Big North». The official foreign policy doctrine of Belarus is «integration of integration» — from the Atlantic by the Pacific. Are there any prerequisites for the economic convergence of the European Union, the Eurasian Union and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization? The China propose a similar project — New Silk Road between Europe and China. Can Belarus and Eastern Europe become a place for the construction of a large North: first in Eurasia, and America in the future?

— The convergence of the EU, Eurasian Union, and SCO is not likely to happen anytime in the near future. These blocs are very different in how they are structured and, more importantly, represent rival interests of major global players — namely Europe, Russia, and China. There are certainly prospects for more economic cooperation within and between these respective blocs, though a more strategic convergence is unlikely.


— A future of the globalization. Last time the trend of globalization is facing a trend of regionalization. It is about regional associations: the Eurasian Union, the European Union, Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). European experts see this as a threat to the successful development of the human race. It can get stick in internal conflicts and lose the ability to work together on global super projects. Do you agree with this opinion? What do you see the structure of the world in next 10-20 years ahead?

— The trend of regionalization does indeed appear to be building, as can be seen in growing differences within regions of the EU for example. In the next 10-20 years, this process is likely to be deepened, as groupings of countries with shared cultural characteristics and geopolitical interests will become more pronounced. In Europe, this can take the shape of a Central/Eastern European bloc, a Germanic/Northern European bloc, and a Mediterranean/Southern European bloc, which can informally or in a de facto sense transition or replace the current structure of the EU. Similar such processes may also occur in the former Soviet Union and Asia.


— Presidential election in the United States. What is your opinion about the internal situation in the US? The economic crisis is ended or delayed? What are the social problems that demand strong reaction from the future president? European experts believe that after the election, US foreign policy will become more rigid and military. What is your opinion?

— US foreign policy is in reality shaped much more by the strategic interests of the country rather than by the personal characteristics of presidential administrations. Therefore the evolution of US foreign policy will depend less on the upcoming presidential elections than the geopolitical circumstances of the world that is inherited by the next president. The U.S. economy is recovering gradually, as evidenced by a U.S. shift away from monetary easing. In contrast to the rest of the world, North America is showing a great deal of economic promise and tighter integration overall. Regardless of who becomes president, the United States will be pursuing a balance of power policy that will entail shoring up regional allies to manage their neighborhoods. This will entail a close working relationship with countries like Turkey, Poland, Romania, the Baltic states and Japan.



Questions by Alexander Sinkevich.

 

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Stratfor: мы не считаем, что США позволят России использовать своё влияние в Сирии

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